Haiti - Economy : 2015 morose, 2016 uncertain - HaitiLibre.com : Haiti news 7/7

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Haiti - Economy : 2015 morose, 2016 uncertain
04/01/2016 12:01:58

The Haitian economy suffered in 2015 of the moroseness that characterized the country's socio-political environment and of climatic changes marked by a relatively harsh drought. This results in a slower pace of growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which, according to preliminary estimates, recorded an increase in volume of 1.7% in 2015, against 2.8% in 2014. The deceleration was observed in almost all the industries that showed increases less pronounced than those of last year.

At sectoral level, agriculture has greatly suffered from the negative distributional effects of the regions that have been severely affected by drought, causing a fall in real terms, of 3.5% of the agricultural value added. Manufacturing industries are among the industries that contributed most to GDP growth in 2015 with an increase of 4.5%, higher to that of last year (2.7%). Then came construction (Buildings and Public Works) and the branch Commercial Restaurant and Hotel which increased 2.3% and each 3.5%, although it should be noted that their performance was better last year with respective growth rates 7.9% and 4.2%.

From the perspective of domestic demand, despite the negative effects of inflation, total final consumption increased in volume by 1.1%, benefiting particularly from rising, in current value, by 11% of remittances from the diaspora and 22% increase in wages and salaries in the public administration. The overall investment, meanwhile, has grown in real terms by 3.3%, especially thanks to the rise in foreign direct investment (5.3%) and other initiatives in the public and private sectors. In regard to external demand, despite the uncertainty that marked the financial year 2015, Haitian exports performed better that in 2014 with an increase at constant prices by 4.6%, against 4.5% previously.

Regarding the evolution of consumer prices, the fiscal year 2015 ended with 11.3% YoY inflation, a rate well above the 6% target which was set in the amending budget 2014-2015. This acceleration in prices is the result, among other things, of the scarcity of local products on the market and the downgrade of the gourde against the US dollar.

Uncertainty continues with the new fiscal year 2015-2016, whose the first quarter was mainly dominated by the post-election turmoil, handicapping suddenly the proper functioning of economic agents. This situation, if it continues, could jeopardize the growth target of 3.5% of GDP set for the fiscal year 2016.

S/ HaitiLibre