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Haiti - FLASH : Survey Brides, Jovenel Moïse winner
23/08/2016 09:13:37

From August 8 to 15, 2016, the Haitian surveys firm conducted a survey on voting intentions in the forthcoming elections in Haiti, among a random sample unweighted of 11,880 people scattered throughout the national territory in a roportion of approximately 100 people per electoral constituency.

The choice of these people was carried out by a draw with two degrees, the first was the selection of clusters of households or Sections Enumeration (SDE) and to the second degree households were selected within the SDE at 25 by SDE.

The 11,880 households were thus drawn from 472 SDE (4 * 118). Within each household a person of 18 years was chosen randomly according to Kish method.

The results obtained from the unweighted sample, were subsequently extrapolated to the whole country by weighting the results found at the constituency level by weight in terms of population size 18 and over estimated within each electoral constituency in the total population.

The margin of error estimated for a presidential candidate at the national level is about 1%.

The following table shows only the presidential candidates for the whole country which recorded a proportion of the vote higher than 0.2% of the surveyed population of 18 years and older.

1. Jovenel Moïse (P.H.T.K) : 4,868 votes (41.0%)
2. Jude Célestin (LAPEH) : 2,994 votes (25.2%)
3. Jean Charles Mouise (Pitit Dessalin) 1,487 votes (12.5%)
4. Maryse Narcisse (Fanmi Lavalas) 901 votes (7.6%)
5. Jean Henry Céant (Renmen Ayiti) 209 votes (1.8%)
6. Beauzile Edmonde Supplice (FUSION) 77 votes (0.6%)
7. Jean·Chavannes Jeune (Canaan) 45 votes (0.4%)
8. Jean Clarens Rendis (UNIR) 43 votes (0.4%)
9. Maxo Joseph (Randevous) 43 votes (0.4%)
10. Daniel Dupiton (CONAPPH) 32 votes (0.3%)
11. Jean Hervé Charles (PENH) 24 votes (0.2%)
12. Luckner Désir (MPH) 24 votes (0.2%)
13. Jacques Sampeur (KLE) 23 votes (0.2%)
14. Roland Magloire (PDI) 19 votes (0.2%)
15. ...

Total 11,880 (100.0%)

Who would be the winner in the presidential election for each department :

Artibonite : Jovenel Moïse (P.H.T.K) 542 votes (36.4%) followed by Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 289 votes (19.4%)
Centre : Jovenel Moïse (P.H.T.K) 501 votes (41.8%) followed by Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 358 votes (29.9%)
Grand'Anse : Jovenel Moïse (P.H.T.K) 453 votes (50.3%) followed by Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 193 votes (21.4%)
Nippes : Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 226 votes (32.3%) followed by Jovenel Moïse (P.H.T.K) 192 votes (27.4%)
Nord : Jovenel Moïse (P.H.T.K) 576 votes 41.1%) followed by Jean Charles Moïse (Pitit Dessalin) 359 votes (25.6%)
Nord'Est : Jovenel Moïse (P.H.T.K) 441 votes (49.0%) followed by Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 158 votes (17.6%)
Nord'Ouest : Jovenel Moïse (P.H.T.K) 603 votes (67.0%) followed by Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 151 votes (16.8%)
Ouest : Jovenel Moïse (P.H.T.K) 683 votes (32.6%) followed by Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 586 votes (28.0%)
Sud : Jovenel Moïse (P.H.T.K) 544 votes (41.9%) followed by Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 450 votes (34.7%)
Sud'Est : Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 464 votes (46.4%) followed by Jovenel Moïse (P.H.T.K) 333 votes (33.3%)

HL/ HaitiLibre