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Haiti - Economy : Low growth in 2016, worse in 2017...
27/12/2016 09:59:03

Haiti - Economy : Low growth in 2016, worse in 2017...
According to preliminary estimates by the Directorate of Economic Statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.4% in 2016, a growth rate well below the target of 3.6% that the authorities had set at the beginning of the fiscal year (October 2015 to September 2016). Marked by social and political turbulence (movements of strikes, street demonstrations especially in the first half), the year 2016 was rather difficult for economic agents.

The agricultural sector that had plagued the Haitian economy in 2015 was largely responsible for GDP growth in 2016. According to preliminary estimates based on partial and provisional data provided by the Ministry of Agriculture, the alue added at constant prices of the sectors: forestry, livestock and fisheries, increased from 3,131 million gourdes in 2015 to 3,226 million gourdes in 2016, an increase of 3.0%, against a fall of 5.4% the previous year.

Among the other industries that contributed to GDP growth in 2016 include the 1.5% increase in manufacturing, which was led by the food industries (4.0%) and the Papermaking and printing (3.9%), which benefited in particular of electoral activities. Unlike previous years, the Building and Public Works sector has virtually stagnated at + 0.2%...

From a global demand perspective, growth was driven by a 1.2% increase in consumption and 1.1% in total investment. Consumption was supported in part by the 7% increase in diaspora remittances and the 12% increase in the public administration payroll. Given that public investment has fallen, the overall increase in private investment can be attributed to the private sector (2.2% increase in foreign direct investment and a 17% increase in loans granted to the private sector by the financial system). The slight increase of 0.7% in exports was mainly due to the exchange rate.

The year 2016 was also marked by a sharp depreciation of the gourde against the US dollar, from 51.8 gourdes per US dollar in September 2015 to 65.2 gourdes in September 2016, a drop of almost 26%. This depreciation of the Haitian currency impacted inflation, which, contrary to the forecast of 6.2% at the beginning of the year, reached 12.5% year-on-year at the end of the fiscal year (September 2016) [14.2% in November 2016].

In terms of prospects, it should be noted that the fiscal year 2017 is badly started because of the major natural hazards that hit the country in early October. Gains obtenained particularly in the crop of spring 2016, was almost canceled by the passage of Hurricane Matthew in at least 4 of the 10 departments of the country (Great South). This natural disaster has severely decapitated farmers, pastoralists and fishermen. If adequate actions are not taken with a view to appropriate recapitalization, this situation risks undermining the expected 2.2% performance of the Haitian economy in 2017.

Forecasts that the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) revised downward sharply for 2017 to 1% instead of the 2.2% set as target by the Government of Haiti. https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-19570-haiti-economy-just-1-growth-for-haiti-in-2017.html

HL/ HaitiLibre

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