According to preliminary estimates of the Directorate of Economic Statistics of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, as apprehended, the Haitian economy, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2017 would be lower than that of 2016 to settle to 1.2% (planned 2.2%) against 1.5% in 2016(planned 3.6%).

This is the lowest rate since 2011 (year post earthquake GDP 5.52%), which distances Haiti a little more from its goal of integrating the group of emerging countries by 2030.

This slowdown in GDP growth in 2017 could be attributed to the first half of the 2017 fiscal year marked by the passage of Hurricane Matthew; the end of the 2016 electoral turmoil; the departure of the transitional government and the installation of the new authorities, with all that it provoked as uncertainties, wait-and-see attitude and change of priority among the private and public economic actors.

Preliminary estimates :

* Semi-definitive ** Provisional *** Estimate

Notes: (1): This is, by convention, a special unit that takes into account the use made by other branches of the "production imputed of banking services" (SNA 93).

Despite these difficulties, the Haitian economy was able to avoid the worst at the sectoral level :

The agricultural sector, for which one had feared a negative growth after the passage of Matthew, nonetheless rose by 0.8% in value added at constant prices, against 3% in 2016;

The manufacturing sector: worn by the manufacturing of food products and beverages (+ 2.8%), increased by only 1%, mainly because of the fall of the textile industry (-2%) and those of paper manufacturing and printing activities (-0.2%), which had recorded an increase of + 2.7% in 2016, due to strong demand related to election campaigns;

The Construction Sector (Buildings and Public Works, Building and civil engineering), whose value added at constant price increased by + 0.9% also contributed to the rise in GDP in 2017. However since last year, this sector no longer has the dynamism it had between 2011 and 2015, indicating some slowing in the post-earthquake reconstruction process ;

The tertiary sector with an average growth of + 0.9% of its value added is led by trade (+ 1.3%), non-market services (+ 0.8%) and Transport and Communications (+ 1.0%).

For the major components of GDP, the aggregate demand analysis indicates that it is mostly the Final Consumption (+2.7%) boosted by the rise in diaspora transfers (+ 15.4%) and the increase in the wage bill at both the public (+ 8.0%) and private (+ 15.5%) levels, followed by the Investment (+ 0.9%) that drove growth, as exports, by volume, fell by -1.2%. Moreover, despite some stability in the exchange rate (especially from May), inflationary pressures were still observed in the Haitian economy, which ended the 2017 fiscal year with 15.4% inflation year-on-year against 12.5% in 2016. It should be noted, however, that inflationary pressures were much more pronounced for local products (+ 16.0%) than for imported products ( + 13.3%).

The Ministry of the Economy emphasizes that the attainment of the Government's ambitious target of 3.9% GDP growth in 2018, will have to pass among other things : by the effective and guaranteed revival of agricultural activities, the revitalization of the construction sector and improving the business climate.

HL/ HaitiLibre