On the eve of the new fiscal year (2018-2019, which begins this Monday, October 1), Ronald Décembre, the new Minister of Economy and Finance estimates that the poor performance of tax revenue collections, double-digit inflation up continuously 14.1% (August 2018 https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-25632-haiti-economy-inflation-passes-the-bar-of-14.html ) since last April and the decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are the main challenges facing the Haitian economy, whose health "is not very good" which highlights in a provisional estimate of the situation, that almost all key macroeconomic indicators show alarming signals.

According to the latest report by MEF's Department of Economic Studies and Forecasts, gross domestic product (GDP) at constant prices will only increase by 1.7% in the year ending 30 September. Recall that a study of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) published last August forecast GDP growth of 1.8% in Haiti (3.9% forecast by the Government of Haiti) for the 2017 fiscal year -2018 https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-25364-haiti-economy-forecast-of-modest-growth-for-haiti-in-2018.html

He also indicated that tax revenues estimated before September 30, for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, were lower than the original estimates in the budget.

Regarding the increase in the deficit (government spending above tax revenues) he estimates that it could reach 20.3 billion gourdes, without including the reimbursement of treasury bills and other expenses in default. This deficit is mainly due to fuel price subsidies and the subsidy of the state-owned Electricité d'Haïti (EDH)

The continuous devaluation of the Gourdes, which has been steadily increasing since June 2017 to stand at 70.79 Gourdes (BRH average acquisition rate) on 21 September 2018, is another source of concern. https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-25684-haiti-flash-how-far-will-the-gourde-fall.html . In this regard, he believes that the low level of foreign direct investment https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-24971-haiti-economy-$375m-investment-in-2017-an-illusion-record.html , the low levels of exports and domestic production, reduced direct budget support from the international community and smuggling are all factors that limit the ability of the monetary authorities to intervene in the foreign exchange market.

See also :

https://www.icihaiti.com/en/news-25477-icihaiti-economy-macroeconomic-a-situation-rather-bad.html

https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-24783-haiti-economy-situation-of-the-public-debt-in-haiti.html

https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-24499-haiti-economy-injection-of-30-million-dollars-of-the-brh-on-the-foreign-exchange-market.html

https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-24181-haiti-economy-strong-increase-in-public-spending-compared-to-revenue.html

SL/ HaitiLibre