At the national level, the recovery in economic activity that started during the 4th quarter of 2020 was relatively moderate despite the increase recorded during the month of December 2020. The business climate deteriorated during the month of October 2020 due to the precarious security conditions in the country.

However, towards the end of the quarter, a relative improvement was observed due to the increase in the flow of visitors and private transfers without counterpart as well as the opening of the borders with the Dominican Republic reports the note on monetary policy of the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH) for the 1st quarter of fiscal year 2020/20121 (October to December 2020).

After monthly inflation of -1.2% in October, consumer prices rose of 0.5% and 1% in November and December respectively. The annual inflation rate fell to 19.2% in December, down 6 percentage points from the previous quarter.

In terms of foreign trade, preliminary data showed an increase in the value of imports during the first quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2020.

On the export side, the performance recorded in the first quarter of 2021 showed relative stagnation despite the fact that the economy has changed. The recovery observed during the 1st quarter of fiscal year 2021, only allowed to regain the level observed in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

In terms of public finances Haiti recorded a budget deficit during the first quarter of the fiscal year 2020/2021 (October to December 2020.) financed to the tune of 20.7 billion gourdes by the BRH. Note that for the current fiscal year, the financing of the budget deficit should not exceed 39.3 billion gourdes according to the economic and financial governance pact signed between the Central Bank and the Ministry of the Economy and Finance.

In the short term, the prospects for the Haitian economy depend on the evolution of the socio-political and security situation. Indeed, these two aspects should weigh significantly on the achievement of objectives in terms of economic growth and public revenues with, ultimately, repercussions on the monetary level.

Download the complete note of the BRH 1st quarter 2019/2020 (PDF) : https://www.haitilibre.com/docs/note_polmon1t21.pdf

HL/ HaitiLibre