This Tuesday at 5:00 AM, the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 62.2 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecasttrack, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday and Haiti on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with highergusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or soand the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system is still in ils formative stage.

To be continued...

S/ HaitiLibre