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Haiti - Environment : Next hurricane season above normal
11/04/2022 11:30:59

Haiti - Environment : Next hurricane season above normal
At the National Tropical Weather Conference at Colorado State University-CSU, Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the report, presented the first hurricane forecast for the 2022 season which begins on June 1st.

In summary, the CSU forecast predicts 19 named storms, 9 of which could become hurricanes with winds of at least 119 km/h (74 mph). Experts say four of the hurricanes could be major (Category 3 or higher) with winds of at least 185km/h (115mph).

Extract from the report :
"We expect the 2022 Atlantic Basin hurricane season to have above normal activity. The current weak La Niña conditions look quite likely to transition to a neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the chances of a significant El Niño appear unlikely. Mean sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic are warmer than normal. We forecast an above-average likelihood for major hurricanes to make landfall along the continental United States coast and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that all it takes is one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for each season, regardless of the amount of activity expected.

Atlantic Basin Hurricane Seasonal Forecast for 2022:
Forecast parameter and 1991–2020
Average (in brackets)
Date of issue April 7, 2022
Named storms: 19 (average 14.4)
Named storm days: 90 (average 69.4)
Hurricanes: 9 (average 7.2)
Hurricane days: 35 (average 27.0)
Major hurricanes: 4 (average 3.2)
Major hurricane days: 9 (average 7.4)
Accumulated cyclone energy: 160 (average 123)
Net tropical cyclone activity: 170% (average 135%)

Landfall probabilities of at least one major hurricane (category 3-4-5) on each of the following coastal areas:

1) Entire continental US coastline: 71% (last century average 52%)
2) East Coast of the United States, including the Florida peninsula: 47% (the average of the last century 31%)
3) Florida Panhandle Gulf Coast west to Brownsville: 46% (last century average 30%)

Possibility of at least one major hurricane (Category 3-4-5) moving into the Caribbean: (10-20°N, 88-60°W)

60% (last century average is 42%)

Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane to make it an active season for them, and they should prepare the same for each season, regardless of the activity forecast.

The early April forecast is the first seasonal forecast issued by Colorado State University and has modest long-term proficiency when assessed in retrospective mode. The proficiency of CSU's forecast updates increases as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches."

SL/ HaitiLibre

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