"Financial stability depends on our ability to understand risks, anticipate shocks, and continuously adapt our monitoring tools."

The new working paper from the Research Directorate in Economics and Finance at the BRH (Central Bank of Haiti), entitled "Banking System Stability and Stress Tests in Haiti : A Bayesian and Quantile Approach to Systemic Risks" bring a significant contribution to the analysis of the resilience of the Haitian banking sector.

Using data covering the period 2000–2024, Jean Marie Cayemitte and Jean Sobocoeur Chrispin assess the banking system’s response to shocks related to inflation, exchange rates, economic contraction, political instability, and natural disasters.

The results indicate that the system has the capacity to absorb moderate shocks, while remaining vulnerable to the combined effects of certain macroeconomic and institutional vulnerabilities. They also emphasize the importance of evidence-based oversight, regular stress tests, and maintaining prudential buffers tailored to the different phases of the economic cycle.

How can we measure the resilience of a banking system in the face of crises ?

Can we anticipate the effects of a political crisis, an inflationary shock, or a sharp currency depreciation on the Haitian banking system ?

In this new paper, researchers from the Directorate of Research in Economics and Finance (DREF) offer a novel analysis of banking stability in Haiti using econometric models and stress test simulations covering the period 2000–2024.

The study sheds new light on the main risk factors, highlights the resilience mechanisms of the banking sector, and formulates concrete recommendations for strengthening financial stability.

Download the BRH document (PDF in French, 34 pages) : https://www.haitilibre.com/docs/WP_BRH_3.pdf

HL/ HaitiLibre