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Haiti - Tomas : First impact
04/11/2010 09:52:57

Haiti - Tomas : First impact
With the approach of Tropical Storm Tomas, the Ministry of Education ordered the closure of all schools (private and public). Direction of Civil Protection (DPC) is asking the population living in areas at risk of leaving as much as possible these places to protect itself, the National Centre of Meteorology maintains the red alert level across the country.

Ms. Jean Baptiste, director of the DPC provides that victims living under tents especially in Port-au-Prince will not all be rescued. She recommends them to evacuate by seeking help from relatives or friends living in safe places.

In the IDP camps, the refugees say live in fear at the approach of Tomas "Civil Protection informed us that she can not take care of all the people and asks us to take refuge with relatives or friends, but we have nowhere to go" said a refugee from the Champ de Mars which stresses that all his friends and family, like most people in the camps are also survivors "Our hands are empty, we are not able to make preparations at the approach of Tomas, come what may" says a mother of 3 children at the Parc Sainte-Therese Petion Ville, which puts his life in the hands of God as most victims who do not know where to go...

This Wednesday at 8:00 EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Tomas was located at 15.9 degrees north and 76 degrees West. At 490 km southwest of Port au Prince (305 miles) with sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph) in increase compared to Wednesday (+55%). Tomas slightly increased its speed (+ 40% from Wednesday). Tomas is currently moving at 10 km/h (6 mph) along a trajectory North Northwest.

Following the current trajectory, the center of Tropical Storm Tomas is located at:

365 km (226mi) of Jérémie
349km (216mi) of Les Cayes
501km (311mi) of Saint-Marc
490km (305mi) of Port-au-Prince
453km (281mi) of Jacmel
250km (150mi) of Kingston (Jamaica)

The new path, if it continues, shows that the center of Tomas should pass between Haiti and Cuba, and not directly on the land. However, the zone of influence of winds extending up to 185 km (115 mi) and varies depending on the strength of the storm (or if Tomas becomes a hurricane)

Hurricane Warning on Haïti The National Hurricane Center envisages that Tomas (sustained winds with higher gusts between 63 and 117 km / 39-73 mph) could become a Category 1 hurricane in the next 17 hours (wind of 119-153 km/h (74-95 mph) on Friday 02:00 am.

If the trajectory and speed of Tomas do not change, Friday at 2:00 am Tomas will be at:

95km (59mi) of Jérémie
148km (92mi) of Les Cayes
245km (152mi) of Saint-Marc
283km (176mi) of Port-au-Prince
269km (167mi) of Jacmel

And should be situated between Friday 2am and Friday 2pm at:

183km (113mi) of Cap-Haïtien
159km (98mi) of Gonaïves
178km (110mi) of Saint-Marc
250km (155mi) of Port-au-Prince
102km (63mi) of Guantanamo (Cuba)

As we previously mentioned, the danger of Tomas does not come from the strength of its winds, but the importance of its precipitation and its slow movement. According to available forecasts, Tomas could produce on a large portion of Haiti, an accumulation of total rainfall of 127-254 mm (5-10 inches).

1 mm of rain corresponds to 1 liter of water by square meter. In some isolated places, precipitations could reach up to 381 mm (15 inches). These rains could cause mudslides in the mountainous terrain, mudslides, landslides and cause flood and major flooding.

A correspondent reported us that the rains started to fall this night on the department of South (Haiti), threatening clouds cover Port-au-Prince.

Note: The forecasters agree that the margin of error in calculating the trajectory can reach 150km in 24 hours of forecast, and 350km to 72 hours of forecast.

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