The Haitian Institute of Statistics and Information published the data of the second fiscal quarter 2016 (January-March) on the Economic Conjuncture and Principal Indicators of the Real Sector. Statistics indicate a decrease of 2.3% in the Index of Industrial Production compared to the previous quarter, even if this index yoy is still up 4.1% it is less strong than that of last year for the same period. In parallel, comparatively to the first quarter of the current fiscal year (October-December 2016), a marked decline in activity was observed in the second quarter.

This quarterly decrease results among others of : textile manufacturing (-4.7%), wood products, paper, printing edition (-2.3%), chemicals (-7.0%). By cons, other industries such as the manufacture of food products (+0.2%), metallurgical works (1.7%) and non-metallic mineral products (+3.4%) shown an upward trend.

Energy :

The quarterly increase in the index of production of electrical energy +11.7% YoY and +3.5% compared with the previous quarter is mainly related to the increase of 6.4% in thermal generation (energy hydroelectric fell 67.7%). The invoiced consumption reflected a downward trend (-3.0%) compared to the previous quarter.

Construction :

Increase of +3.6% yoy in the construction index, but down -2.7% compared the previous quarter. The decrease for the quarter is consistent with the reduction in the number of employees recorded in the quarter and the decrease in the amount of imported cement.

Internal trade :

Increase of +6.3% for the commercial index yoy but down -6.9% compared the last quarter. This decrease in nominal value is due to the poor performance of branches such as: Sale of motor vehicles (-8.9), parts and vehicle accessories (-4.6), food beverages and tobacco (-9.7%), building materials (-7.1%), other consumer goods and hardware (-1.9%).

Consumer prices :

Increase of +14.2% for the index consumer price YoY and + 3.2% compared the prior quarter. This quarterly increase in the price level, is attributable to the uptrend behavior of all items of expenditure, particularly: food (+ 3.5%), housing (+ 3.2%), clothing (+ 5.4%), transportation (+ 1.4%) and furniture (+ 3.5%). The price index of agricultural products, meanwhile, increased by +19.3% YoY and + 1.4% compared the previous quarter.

External trade :

Increase of +6.1% of the index of the average value of imports YoY and +5.1% compared the prior quarter. The index of total value, for its part, recorded an increase of + 2.9% yoy but declined by -15.9% compared the previous quarter, resulting in a decline in the quantum of 3.1% yoy and a quarterly decline of -11.6%.

Cumulative growth rates of indices of Industry 3.3%, Construction 3.6% and Trade 6% are significantly lower than those recorded during the same period of the previous fiscal year respectively, 9.2%, 7.6% and 10.6%.

Several observers of the Haitian economy are skeptical about the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3%, later revised by the authorities to 2% for fiscal year 2016. According to the latest information published by the IHSI, GDP growth in 2015 has been revised down and figure now at 1.2% instead of 1.7%, a figure published in December 2015.

HL/ HaitiLibre