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Haiti - FLASH : Last survey Brides, Jovenel Moïse, elected in the first round
14/10/2016 09:09:52

From 28 September to 1 October 2016, the Haitian polling firm Brides, conducted a latest survey on voting intentions before the elections scheduled on October 9, which postponed "sine die" because of the passage of Hurricane Matthew on Haiti https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-18834-haiti-flash-the-elections-of-october-9-postponed.html

This survey was conducted on a random sample of 13.614 people scattered throughout the national territory at about 100 people per constituency composed of a single commune and approximately 150 for the electoral constituency composed of 2 or 3 communes. The choice of these people was carried out by a draw with two degrees, the first was the selection of clusters of households or Sections of Enumeration (SDE) and to the second degree the households were selected within the SDE at 25 by SDE. These 13.614 individuals have therefore been taken from 476 SDE (4.119). Within each household one person aged 18 and over was selected randomly according to Kish method.

The results obtained from the unweighted sample, were subsequently extrapolated to the whole country by weighting the results at the constituency by weight in terms of population size of 18 and more estimated within each constituency in the total population.

The margin of error estimated for a presidential candidate at the national level is about 1%.

List of Candidates for the Presidency having obtained 0.2% or more of voting intentions of 13.614 surveyed aged 18 and older, 28 September to 1 October 2016 :

1 - Jovenel Moïse (PHTK) 7,354 votes (54%)
2 - Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 3,176 votes (23.3%)
3 - Jean Charles Moïse (Pitit Dessalin) 1,624 votes (12.0%)
4 - Marysse Narcisse (Fanmi Lavalas) 957 votes (7.0%)
5 - Jean Henry Céant (Renme Ayiti) 90 votes (0.7%)
6 - Beauzile Edmone Supplice (Fusion) 86 votes (0.6%)

Result of the first survey BRIDES conducted from 8 to 15 August 2016 :

1. Jovenel Moïse (PHTK) : 4,868 votes (41.0%)
2. Jude Célestin (LAPEH) : 2,994 votes (25.2%)
3. Jean Charles Mouise (Pitit Dessalin) 1,487 votes (12.5%)
4. Maryse Narcisse (Fanmi Lavalas) 901 votes (7.6%)
5. Jean Henry Céant (Renmen Ayiti) 209 votes (1.8%)
6. Beauzile Edmonde Supplice (FUSION) 77 votes (0.6%)

HL/ HaitiLibre