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Haiti - Economy : Mixed outlook for the Haitian economy in 2022
08/02/2022 09:39:38

Haiti - Economy : Mixed outlook for the Haitian economy in 2022
In its note on monetary policy in the first quarter of fiscal year 2021-2022 (October–December 2021) the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH) explains "[...] economic activity has been marked by the deterioration of the business climate due to the deterioration of security conditions and prolonged periods of scarcity of fuel. This situation affected the production of goods and services and further reinforced the wait-and-see posture of economic agents.

[...] For the agricultural sector, security conditions have once again interrupted local supply chains, fueling the negative expectations of economic agents.

[...] The impact of supply shocks both locally and in the international market has resulted in an increase in consumer prices. On a monthly basis, inflation has largely exceeded the historic 1% mark, standing at 4.6% and 4.7% respectively in October and November 2021. On a year-on-year basis, the inflation rate has increased sharply accelerated to reach 24.6% in November 2021 https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-35599-haiti-flash-annual-inflation-246-increase-of-93-over-2-months.html

[...] As for the external sector, imports amounted to 293.78 million US dollars, down 5.69% compared to July 2021. At the same time, exports increased by 25.68% compared to July to reach $130.72 million.

[...] The outlook for the Haitian economy in 2022 remains mixed. The behavior of the exchange rate and inflation will depend, beyond external shocks, on the improvement of the business climate. The continued increase in commodities on the international market risks increasing Haiti's import bill and amplifying inflationary pressures. These could be exacerbated, internally, by the deterioration of security conditions, which may restrict market supply conditions across the country.

[...] However, the implementation of a realistic budget and the search for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies through the rigorous monitoring of an economic and financial governance pact, should limit the monetary effect in feeding inflationary pressures. Similarly, the commitment and actions of public authorities to improve the macroeconomic framework should lay the groundwork for discussion and the signing of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Such an agreement [...] would make it possible to limit recourse to monetary financing and thus facilitate the stabilization of the exchange rate as well as the attenuation of the residual effects of the adjustment of prices at the pump on consumer prices.

For all the details download the complete note from the BRH (PDF 14 pages): https://www.haitilibre.com/docs/note_polmon1t22.pdf

HL/ HaitiLibre

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