At the national level, in the first quarter of the 2022-2023 fiscal year, economic activity was affected by the continued deterioration of the business climate in a context of deteriorating security conditions which notably disrupted the production of goods and services by local businesses as well as their distribution across the country. This situation was amplified by episodes of scarcity of petroleum products and by the poor performance of the agricultural sector. The combination of these various facts led to a pronounced and rapid intensification of inflationary pressures in the economy.

Excerpts from the BRH's 4th quarter note :

"[...] With regard to public finances, the various measures taken to increase revenue resulted in a relative improvement in fiscal performance during the first quarter of 2023, which was reflected in the reduction in recourse to advances of the Central Bank [...] during the period from October to December 2022, total government revenue reached 33.03 billion Gourdes, an increase of 23.5% compared to the previous quarter. The evolution of the latter results not only from the increase in customs revenue, but also from oil revenue collected over the period under review. [...]

The good performance of incomes made it possible to increase their relative share to 42.1% in total resources. However, it was unable to compensate for budget expenditures which amounted to 47.9 billion Gourdes Thus, the gap between total resources and disbursements resulted in a deficit of around 13.5 billion Gourdes , partially funded by the BRH. [...]

[...] In the first quarter of the 2023 fiscal year, the Central Bank [...] while maintaining the status quo in terms of key rates and reserve requirement coefficients, continued its policy of recovering excess liquidity through the BRH bonds.

[...] with the aim of supporting the supply of currencies, the Central Bank intervened in the foreign exchange market to the tune of 11.3 million US dollars, which also enabled it to sterilize more than 1.34 billion gourdes of liquidity. However, unlike the previous quarter, the Central Bank's interventions resulted in net purchases of US$47.13 million, a reversal that aims to strengthen the cushion of net foreign exchange reserves in a period characterized by the increase seasonal unrequited private transfers.

OUTLOOK :

[...] For the next two quarters, several factors point to a relatively favorable outlook for the Haitian economy. First, the allocations provided for in the 2022-2023 budget for the social sector (30.6 billion gourdes) should help support consumption and thus reduce food insecurity. Similarly, the credits allocated to investment expenditure would help to implement actions to revive the agricultural sector (6.04 billion), the implementation of projects in the building and public works sector (16.04 billion gourdes), strengthening the capacity of border posts and customs control (302.2 million gourdes) with the aim of freeing up more local resources to finance investments essential for growth.

[...] However, these prospects will depend crucially on an easing of socio-political unrest and an improvement in security conditions [...] Such developments would also contribute to the reduction of bottlenecks at the level of the supply chains which impact both the production and the circulation of goods and services in the economy [...]"

Download the full note from the BRH (PDF in French) : https://www.haitilibre.com/docs/Politique_monetaire_decembre2022.pdf

HL/ HaitiLibre