The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and is expected to be eventful, according to forecasters, with its share of named storms (winds of 63 km/h or more), hurricanes (winds of 119 km/h or more), and major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5) (winds of 179 km/h or more).

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) :

NOAA explains that the hurricane season is expected to be above normal due to a combination of several factors, including above-average ocean temperatures, forecasts of low wind shear, and the potential for increased activity in the West African monsoon, the main source of hurricanes in the Atlantic. These factors favor the formation of tropical storms.

This hurricane season is also marked by the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that will generate some of the strongest and longest-lasting Atlantic storms.

NOAA forecasts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season for the 2025 season.

13 to 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 are expected to become hurricanes.

3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).

NOAA has a 70% confidence level in this forecast.

Colorado State University :

Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University has released his forecast for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season. It predicts a more active than average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Available data indicate that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the 1991-2020 average.

The forecast is as follows :

- 17 named storms (average of 14.4)

- 85 named storm days (average of 69.4)

- 9 hurricane days (average of 7.2)

- 35 hurricane days (average of 27.0)

- 4 major hurricanes (categories 3-4-5) (average of 3.2)

- 9 major hurricane days (average of 7.4)

The probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States and the Caribbean is estimated to be above its long-term average.

UK Tropical Storm Risk Institute

Tropical Storm Risk forecasters predict a season that is average compared to the past 30 years.

Updated forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:

- 14 storms

- 7 hurricanes

- 3 major hurricanes

AccuWeather :

AccuWeather predicts a number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), and direct landfalls in the United States that are near, above the historical average, according to DaSilva, senior expert.

He warns that water temperatures in the ocean, as well as in the Gulf and Caribbean, are already well above historical averages and are expected to remain high for most of the year. These conditions, favorable for rapid storm development, could lead to unstable hurricanes in 2025.

DaSilva emphasizes that rapid storm intensification will likely be a major issue again this year, as sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content across most of the basin are expected to be well above average.

He explains that a La Niña trend could lead to an active end to the season, while an El Niño trend could lead to an earlier end to the season.

AccuWeather forecasts the number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct landfalls in the United States close to or even above the historical average.

- 19 named storms;

- 9 hurricanes, including 4 major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher;

- 3 to 6 direct landfalls in the United States.

DaSilva added that there is a 20% chance that this year will see more than 18 named storms.

Cuban Meteorological Institute (INSMET) :

INSMET predicts the formation of 15 tropical storms, eight of which could develop into hurricanes. Ten of these storms are expected to form in the Atlantic, three in the Caribbean, and two in the Gulf of Mexico.

Alphabetical list of storm names. And 2025 Atlantic hurricanes:

Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy

In Haiti, the official launch of preparations for the 2025 hurricane season took place in mid-April during the inaugural session of the National Disaster Risk Management Committee, chaired by Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, in the presence of key ministers and civil protection officials.

A comprehensive emergency plan was unveiled.

The Directorate General of Civil Protection presented the 2025 National Cyclone Response Plan, structured around three priority areas:

Enhanced prevention :

Optimization of early warning systems and preventive evacuations

Protection of vulnerable populations:

Special measures for displaced populations in camps

Coordinated response :

Mobilization of logistical and human resources across the country

Assessment of national capacities.

The participants conducted a detailed examination of :

• Critical infrastructure (emergency shelters, communication networks);

• Regional operational capacities;

• The integrated operation of the National Risk Management System;

• The pivotal role of the Permanent Secretariat for Risk Management (SPGRD);

The Prime Minister emphasized the imperative of maximum protection for citizens, particularly in the current context of heightened vulnerability. "We will do everything possible to ensure that every Haitian is protected from future climate hazards."

Since this meeting, simulation exercises have been conducted in the most exposed departments, as well as public information campaigns on precautionary measures.

S/ SL/ HaitiLibre