A new study by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), published Tuesday, August 5, 2025, reveals that Mexico, Cuba, and Haiti will be the region's worst-performing economies in 2025 and 2026.

During the presentation of this study, ECLAC estimated that Mexico's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow by only 0.3% this year and 1% in 2026.

José Manuel Salazar, ECLAC's Executive Secretary, emphasized that Mexico's weak growth, 1.1 percentage points lower than in 2024, is due to the economic slowdown in the United States, its main trading partner, the decline in consumption and investment, and the volatile tariff policy of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Regarding trade negotiations between Mexico and the United States, following the 90-day tariff truce, Salazar stressed that there are reasons to be "optimistic" about the possibility of the two countries reaching a favorable agreement. "There is a very strong interdependence between the two countries, which in itself constitutes a strong incentive for the parties to reach an agreement," he said, emphasizing that Mexico's macroeconomic conditions are "solid", a factor that also weighs heavily in the negotiations.

Only Haiti and Cuba will post lower economic performance than Mexico in Latin America, with respective declines of -2.3% and -1.5% this year and a slight recovery in 2026 (-1% and 0.1%).

Salazar emphasized that, in general, the region is experiencing a prolonged period of low growth after experiencing a new "lost decade" between 2014 and 2023, following the decade of the 1980s, and that this could be repeated if a new period of economic expansion does not occur.

According to ECLAC, Latin American countries are facing a highly complex and uncertain international environment due to the United States' tariff policy, which not only has direct effects on the exports of the region's economies, but also indirect effects due to the increased volatility of international financial markets.

S/ HaitiLibre