The departments of South and Grand'Anse have been placed on red alert (absolute vigilance is required. Danger is very likely and the effects are significant). The Haitian Hydrometeorological Unit (U.H.M) issued this alert due to the heavy rain and gusty winds that are likely to hit these departments very severely, particularly over the weekend and into the beginning of the week.

While the Nippes, West, and South-East departments are at orange alert level (Be very vigilant. Danger likely and moderate effect. Dangerous phenomena observed or expected).

Bulletin:

At 2:00 p.m. EDT (18:00 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. Melissa is moving slowly toward the west-northwest at about 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow west-northwest or westward movement is expected today and through the end of the weekend. A turn toward the north and northeast is forecast for Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and could be near or over eastern Cuba by by the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected over the next two days, and Melissa is expected to become a major hurricane by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 125 miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 in).

Wind

Tropical storm conditions are expected to develop in Jamaica by this evening, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane conditions are possible in the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.

Rainfall

Melissa is expected to bring rainfall totals of 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm) to parts of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Wednesday, with local highs of 35 inches (890 mm) possible over eastern Jamaica and the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Additional torrential rains are likely beyond Wednesday, but exact totals remain uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected in southwestern Haiti and parts of Jamaica, with the potential for catastrophic flooding impacts to also extend across the rest of southern Haiti to the southern Dominican Republic.

For eastern Cuba, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches (125 to 250 mm), with local amounts reaching 15 inches (380 mm), are expected through Wednesday, resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional torrential rain is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time precludes accurate totals.

Storm Surge

A life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely along the southern coast of Jamaica later this weekend or early next week. Maximum storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet (2.1 to 3.4 meters) above ground level, near and east of Melissa's central landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is the potential for significant storm surge along the southeastern coast of Cuba early next week.

Swell

Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect parts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba over the next few days.

Key Messages

Jamaica : Melissa's slow-moving landfall will bring a period of several days of damaging winds and heavy rains beginning this evening, likely to cause catastrophic flash flooding, numerous landslides, extensive infrastructure damage, long-term power and communication outages, and potentially prolonged community isolation. A life-threatening storm surge is also likely along parts of the southern coast early next week. All preparations should be completed today.

Haiti : Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected in southwestern Haiti through early next week, likely to cause extensive infrastructure damage and potentially prolonged community isolation. Strong winds could also last a day or more on the Tiburon Peninsula.

Dominican Republic : Heavy rains could produce potentially catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern regions.

Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rains by the middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing.

Tips:

REMINDER IN CASE OF A LANDSLIDE

Stay away from unstable slopes: embankments, gullies, banks, and retaining walls.

Recognize the warning signs: cracks in the ground/walls, falling rocks, cracking sounds, swelling ground, and jammed doors/windows.

Leave the area immediately if movement begins; do not use affected roads, bridges, or trails; do not cross mudslides.

Turn off electricity and gas if it is safe to do so and stay away from heavy walls.

Take essentials with you: documents, medication, emergency kit (water, flashlight, radio, batteries), and reach a safe, stable, and elevated location.

REMINDER IN CASE OF FLOOD

Move to a higher ground and leave flooded areas as soon as possible.

Never drive or walk through water (30 cm can sweep a vehicle away).

Turn off the electricity and gas if possible without danger, using the main switch.

Protect your essentials: documents, medication, and emergency kit (water, flashlight, radio, batteries) in a waterproof pouch.

Stay informed through official channels and call emergency numbers in case of danger; help vulnerable people around you.

HL/ HaitiLibre