Haiti - FLASH : D-3, Last survey BRIDES on voting intentions

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Haiti - FLASH : D-3, Last survey BRIDES on voting intentions
18/11/2016 06:51:01

From November 13 to 16, 2016, the Haitian polling firm Brides, carried out a final survey on voting intentions before the elections scheduled for Sunday, November 20.

This survey was conducted on an unweighted random sample of 12,842 people scattered throughout the national territory at a rate of about 100 persons per electoral constituency constituted of a single commune and about 150 for of electoralconstituencies constituted of 2 or 3 communes. The choice of these individuals was made in a two-stage draw, the first of which was the selection of clusters of households or Enumeration Sections (SDE) and to the second level households were selected within SDE at 25 per SDE. The 12,842 households were therefore drawn from 476 SDEs (4*119). Within each household a person 18 years of age is selected at random according to the Kish method.

The results obtained from the unweighted sample, were subsequently extrapolated to the whole country by weighting the results at the constituency by weight in terms of the size of population 18 years and over, estimated within each electoral constituency in the total population.

The margin of error estimated for a presidential candidate at the national level is less than 1%.

Results of the latest BRIDES survey carried out from 13 to 16 November 201 (Presidential Candidates who obtained 0.5% and more of the voting intentions of the 12,842 respondents aged 18 and over)

1 - Jovenel Moïse (PHTK) 7,002 votes (54.5%)
2 - Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 2,660 votes (20.7%)
3 - Jean Charles Moïse (Pitit Dessalin) 1,487 votes (11.6%)
4 - Marysse Narcisse (Fanmi Lavalas) 856 votes (6.7%)
5 - Jean Henry Céant (Renmen Ayiti) 133 votes (1.0%)
6 - Beauzile Edmone Supplice (Fusion) 95 votes (0.7%)

Results of the latest BRIDES survey carried out from 28 September to 1 October 2016 :
https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-18926-haiti-flash-last-survey-brides-jovenel-moise-elected-in-the-first-round.html

1 - Jovenel Moïse (PHTK) 7,354 votes (54%)
2 - Jude Célestin (LAPEH) 3,176 votes (23.3%)
3 - Jean Charles Moïse (Pitit Dessalin) 1,624 votes (12.0%)
4 - Marysse Narcisse (Fanmi Lavalas) 957 votes (7.0%)
5 - Jean Henry Céant (Renmen Ayiti) 90 votes (0.7%)
6 - Beauzile Edmone Supplice (Fusion) 86 votes (0.6%)

Results of the first BRIDES survey carried out from 8 to 15 August 2016 :
https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-18401-haiti-flash-survey-brides-jovenel-moise-winner.html

1. Jovenel Moïse (PHTK) : 4,868 votes (41.0%)
2. Jude Célestin (LAPEH) : 2,994 votes (25.2%)
3. Jean Charles Mouise (Pitit Dessalin) 1,487 votes (12.5%)
4. Maryse Narcisse (Fanmi Lavalas) 901 votes (7.6%)
5. Jean Henry Céant (Renmen Ayiti) 209 votes (1.8%)
6. Beauzile Edmonde Supplice (FUSION) 77 votes (0.6%)

Evolution of the tendency of the 4 main candidates from July 2015 to November 2016

HL/ HaitiLibre