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Haiti - Environment : Latest perspectives of the hurricane season
The latest outlook indicates that the number of expected named storms (winds 39 mph or more) is 15 to 21, including 7 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph / 119 km/h or more), of which 3 to 5 could become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph / 178 km/h or more). This updated outlook includes the 5 named storms that have formed so far, with Hurricane Elsa becoming the 5th most recent named storm on record.
"After a record start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season shows no signs of abating as it enters the peak months ahead," said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. ., administrator of NOAA.
NOAA scientists predict that the probability of an above-normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is 65%. There is a 25% chance of a near par season and a 10% chance of a lower than par season.
"A mix of competing ocean and weather conditions generally favors above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Nina in the coming months" said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA's senior seasonal hurricane forecaster.
Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not expected to be as hot as they were during the peak season of 2020; however, reduced vertical wind shear and enhanced monsoon in West Africa are contributing to current conditions which may increase seasonal activity.
"Now is the time for families and communities to make sure their preparations are in place [...] These storms can be devastating," said Louis W. Uccellini, Ph.D., Director of the National Weather Service.
Note that NOAA's update for Outlook 2021 covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends on November 30, 2021.
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