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Haiti - Economy : 5th year of negative GDP in Haiti (Report)
30/12/2023 09:44:07

Haiti - Economy : 5th year of negative GDP in Haiti (Report)
In brief : Summary of the economic account for fiscal year 2022-2023:
In a national context marked by socio-political instability, worsening insecurity and the massive exodus of the population towards other countries, the Haitian economy has not been able to return to growth during fiscal year, sinking further into recession for a fifth consecutive year, indicates the Department of Economic Statistics (DSE) which has just released its annual publication entitled 'Economic Accounts in 2023".

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which had fallen by -1.7% in 2022, experienced a further fall of -1.9% during the 2022-2023 fiscal year.

The rather hostile general environment did not allow the Haitian economy to regain its rights in 2023. This situation has undermined economic operators operating in the three major sectors of activity. The blocking factors have only deteriorated an economy which was already in the doldrums after four successive years of decline.

The three major sectors of the economy all saw their added value contract during this financial year, with respective amounts for the primary sector of 95.6 billion gourdes (-5.6%), for the secondary sector of 137.1 billion (-3.7%) and for the tertiary sector 316.2 billion (-2.9%). In terms of Global Supply and Demand, almost all components of GDP contributed to its decline in 2023.

With regard to Consumer Prices, double-digit inflation which is struggling to decline continues to erode the power of money, even if in recent months we have seen a certain slowdown in the pace of inflation, compared to growth peaks last year.

Unlike last year, it was mainly internal factors that influenced the upward behavior of inflation. Among these factors : the installation of toll booths by armed groups which has an impact on the consumer, economic agents who estimate that prices will rise and consequently automatically increase their selling prices and finally the imbalance between supply and demand for goods on the market (difficulty of supply by transporters due to road routes controlled by gangs and poor performance of agriculture in 2023 as well as the drop in imports have caused a certain reduction in the supply of goods local and imported products on the market.

Perspectives :
Many uncertainties about the immediate future on a political, social and economic level still reign in the minds of the population in general and economic operators in particular. According to them, it is very likely that the same obstacles which prevailed in 2023 will still be present in 2024. This state of mind is likely to perpetuate the wait-and-see attitude which characterized economic agents in 2023 and which, naturally, will not does not play at all in favor of a real revival of economic activities.

In recent years, in addition to socio-political upheavals, insecurity has been considered to be the major cause of the stagnation of almost all sectors of activity. Over the past five years, the economy has been held hostage by the political crisis and its corollary insecurity.

It will be difficult to bring inflation down to a single digit, that is to say to a level which would avoid the considerable erosion of household purchasing power. Indeed, containing inflation to a single digit seems problematic due, among other things, to the continued increase in the cost price of goods, due to the continued existence of toll booths installed by gangs on the main roads connecting the economic capital to the rest of the country.

Likewise, growth of 1.5% of GDP is expected in 2024, but whether it is a revival of the economy through Demand or Supply, the resolution of this multidimensional crisis remains and remains a necessary step to be able to achieve this objective and thus provide economic operators with the favorable business climate which is so lacking.

Download the full report of the 2023 economic accounts (PDF in French 26 pages) : https://www.haitilibre.com/docs/comptes-economiques-2023.pdf

HL/ HaitiLibre

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