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Haiti - FLASH : NOAA predicts a hurricane season above normal
24/05/2024 09:52:58

Haiti - FLASH : NOAA predicts a hurricane season above normal
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
Forecasters from the National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, are predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA's outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, calls for an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a season close to normal and a 5% probability of a season less than a normal season.

NOAA predicts a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds 63 mph or greater) [12 to 17 named storms in 2023]. Of these, 8 to 13 are expected to become hurricanes (winds of 120 km/h or more) [5 to 9 in 2023], including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 180 km/h /h or more) [1 to 4 in 2023]. Forecasters have 70% confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to see above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, developing La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor the formation of tropical storms.

Colorado State University:
According to Dr. Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University, the 2024 season should be very active, even hyperactive, due to the return of the “La Niña” phenomenon, the particularity of which is to promote hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.

- 23 tropical storms
- 11 hurricanes
- 5 major hurricanes

Note that the long-term average is 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Tropical Storm Risk:
- 20 tropical storms (+3)
- 11 hurricanes (+2)
- 5 major hurricanes (+1)

AccuWeather:
- 20 to 25 tropical storms
- from 8 to 12 hurricanes
- from 4 to 7 major hurricanes

The Weather Channel:
The American television channel specializing in weather has published its forecasts, a little above those of “Colorado State University”:
- 24 tropical storms (+1)
- 11 hurricanes
- 6 major hurricanes (+1)

Note that so far, the 2024 hurricane season has similar characteristics to those of 1878, 1926, 1998. In 2023, when the Atlantic waters were warm but the El Niño phenomenon produced unfavorable shear conditions there were 14 named phenomena among which 6 were classified as hurricanes, 2 of which were force majeure https://www.haitilibre.com/article-41103-haiti-environnement-cloture-de-la-saison-des-hurricanes-bilan .html

The US-based National Hurricane Center has released the list of hurricane names for this year. The names selected are: Alberto, Beril, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valérie and William.

See also :
https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-41103-haiti-environment-closure-of-the-hurricane-season-report.html
https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-39649-haiti-environment-hurricane-season-2023-noaa-forecasts.html

S/ HaitiLibre

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