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Haiti - i-Vote : Election Results (i-Vote)
Cumulative results on 12 weeks:
Number of i-Votes : 28,923
(1) Charles Henri Baker : 6,980 i-votes (24.13 %)
(2) Mirlande Manigat : 5,187 i-votes (17.93 %)
(3) Léon Jeune : 4,264 i-Votes (14.74 %)
(4) Michel Joseph Martelly : 4,239 i-Votes (14.66 %)
(5) Jean Henry Céant : 1,319 i-Votes (4.56 %)
(6) Leslie Voltaire : 1,252 i-Votes (4.33 %)
(7) Jacque Édouard Alexis : 1,093 i-Votes (3.78 %)
(8) Jude Célestin : 679 i-Votes (2.35 %)
NON-CUMULATIVE results, last week from November 14 to 20, 2010
Number of i-Votes : 2,322
(1) Mirlande Manigat : 510 i-votes (21.96 %)
(2) Charles Henri Baker : 495 i-votes (21.32 %)
(3) Michel Joseph Martelly : 489 i-Votes (21.06%)
(4) Léon Jeune : 403 i-Votes (17.36 %)
(5) Jean Henry Céant : 71 i-Votes (3.06 %)
(6) Jude Célestin : 61 i-Votes (2.63 %)
(7) Jacque Édouard Alexis : 55 i-Votes (2.37 %)
(8) Leslie Voltaire : 48 i-Votes (2.07 %)
It seems likely that no candidate (except maneuvering) will not get a vote sufficient to win the first round, and that these elections will be held in two rounds. If this hypothesis is confirmed, we will provide you with an i-Vote system for the candidates of the second round.
Analysis of interest among Internet users over 12 weeks (mobilization capacity)
(1) Charles Henri Baker :
The candidature of this candidate was very strong the 3 first weeks. Baker in 3rd week obtained 22.89% of the vote of the Internet Users. However in the 9 weeks which have followed, its capacity of mobilization remained modest, (+1.24%).
(2) Mirlande Manigat :
Unlike Charles Henri Baker, started to be interested in this candidate, only from the fourth week. In the 8 weeks that followed, the interests of Internet users has continued to rise (+5.09%).
(3) Léon Jeune :
Léon Jeune is the candidate who has raised the most interest among Internet users, and this since the first week. During the 12 weeks, Léon Jeune has constantly increased the Internet users mobilization (+ 6.18%). No candidate has received a gain as important.
(4) Michel Joseph Martelly :
The Martelly candidate seems to have a popularity acquired on Internet, however, between week 3 and last week he has evolved into a margin of 0.94%, registering a slight decline in interest in the last two weeks. The Martelly candidate was not able to increase his public acquired, on Internet.
(5) Jean Henry Céant :
Although fifth in the overall rankings, Jean Henry Céant not only has not managed to mobilize more i-Vote, but he did not stop losing votes from week 3 until the 12th week (- 4.21 %). The Internet users after a strong interest from the 3rd week, gradually lost interest in this candidate.
(6) Leslie Voltaire :
Leslie Voltaire from Week 3 was no longer able to increase the mobilization of Internet Users for his candidacy or his program. Interest near the Internet Users for his candidacy has steadily decreased over the past 9 weeks (-1.44%)
(7) Jacque Édouard Alexis :
Like Voltaire candidate, interest near the Internet users for his candidacy has steadily decreased over the past 9 weeks (-2.11%)
(8) Jude Célestin :
The candidate Celestine, raised little interest among Internet Users, between week 3 and week 12, the mobilization for this candidate has evolved into a difference of 0.19%.
Evolution of the percentages of votes for each candidate from the first week and 12th week of the i-Votes campaign (August 29 to November 20, 2010)
For information purposes here is the last available survey BRIDE, made in Haiti, even if its impartiality is strongly criticized.
BRIDE survey period October 13 to 20, 2010
Sample: 5.320 persons
(1) Mirlande Manigat
(2) Jude Célestin
(3) Michel Joseph Martelly
(4) Charles Henri Baker
(5) Jacque Édouard Alexis
(6) Jean Henry Céant
(7) Chavannes Jeune
(8) Yves Christalin
Note : that 6 of 8 candidates of Bride survey (in different positions) are included in our surveys (with the exception of candidates 7 and 8)
The real winner will be decided (except unforeseen) at the polls in Haiti on Sunday and could be different from our results. Quite simply that on Internet, the Internet users are not influenced by the publicity campaigns, do not undergo any pressure nor threat, that the cholera, the floods and urban violences do not affect them. So these are i-Vote (mainly from the diaspora) which have more perspective and independence that the real voting next Sunday. Let us wish that in spite of a situation very complicated in the country, the rate of participation will be sufficiently important to elect a government having all necessary legitimacy to approach the rebuilding of the country with the international community. A low participation rate could have heavy consequences on the future of our country.
Next week is critical in Haiti and undoubtedly at high risk for our compatriots. Unforeseen events can change the order of things, in a campaign where violences and the intimidations, often have (unfortunately) more effect than the large gatherings, on the voters.
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